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August 22 - Morning Comments

The grains moved slightly higher in the overnight session with corn increasing ½ a cent, soybeans up 3 ¼ cents and wheat up 4 1/4.

Yesterday, the Pro Farmer crop tour released their yield estimates for Iowa at 178 ¾ bushels per acre which is below the USDA's August forecast of 185 bushels per acre and well below the latest Planalytics yield forecast of 187.4 bushels per acre. In Minnesota the crop tour projected 178 ¾ bushels per acre which was down from last year but still higher than the 168 bushels per acre forecast by the USDA.

Yesterday, we continued to see end users increase their basis for spot soybeans. The tight old crop stocks have the September/November soybean spread rocketing higher. The spread is now trading at 106 ½ cents, up from 11 cents on August 4th. End users have supported the bullish spreading with the Gulf CIF basis now trading +325 off the November contract and a processor out of Claypool, IN bidding $4.00 over the November contract for soybeans delivered by September 3rd.

Wheat quality problems continue to be a concern in Europe with more rain in the forecast for Germany as it looks to harvest the remaining 25% of its crop. Quality specifications for the delivery locations of the European wheat contract have been changed weeks ago to ensure that foreign buyers are not delivered feed wheat. Recently across the newswires there is talk that Lithuanian wheat and English wheat are being imported to mix with French wheat to get quality up to spec.

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