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October 24 - Morning Comments

In the overnight session the grains continued their move higher with corn up 3 3/4 cents, soybeans up 3 3/4 and wheat up 9 cents this morning. This morning private exporters reported 101,600 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 14/15 delivery.

Yesterday, U.S soybean export sales caught traders off guard by reporting more than twice the sales expected in that report which surprised the market and helped fuel the 30 cent soybean rally into yesterdays close. By law, sales over 100,000 metric tons must be reported in a daily sales announcement but this did not occur last week leaving traders with no indication that nearly 2.2 million tons of soybeans had been sold. Peter Burr, chief of the exporting branch of the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service said that “a sizable portion of these sales were optional origin sales that were changed to U.S origin” and that “some of these were late sales”.


Wheat rallied sharply in the overnight with Chicago wheat up 8 cents while Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat posted 6-cent gains.  Weather problems in Australia are expected to curb production there, as farmers begin harvesting there this month. Analysts expect production to total 23.2 MMT in 2014-2015, versus a government forecast of 24.2 MMT and 27 MMT last year.  Also, Russia's 2015 wheat crop is expected to drop with private analyst SovEcon expecting a 15 to 20% output slide based on lack of moisture and poor greenness that they say is the worst in 5 years.  Winter wheat is going into dormancy with a lack of moisture and runs the risk of some winterkill damage. In 2009-10, 12.6% of the crop was damaged by winterkill. SovEcon also warned that while farmers were able to get fall planted crops in based on pre-purchased inputs, spring crops could see substantial cuts in acreage as a result of the Russian ruble tumbling 17% in the past 3 months.

Harvest pace has been moving along quickly over the last week with clear weather expected over the next four days. Tuesday of next week should bring some more precipitation to the eastern corn-belt which might cause some interruption to harvest and the 6-10 day outlooks shows a higher chance of precipitation in the northern states of ND, MN, WI and MI. The 6-10 also shows a drier than normal trend in KS, OK, TX, MO and LA. In South America showers are expected from Saturday through Tuesday of next week, covering much of Brazil and alleviating some of the dryness concerns.

Today is the last trade for November options for Corn, Chicago Wheat, Kansas City Wheat, Minneapolis Wheat and Soybeans. Friday October 31st will be first notice for the November soybean contract.

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