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October 22 - Morning Comments

Soybeans surged another 12 cents higher in the overnight on very light news. A close above 972 ½ on the November 14 contract would be a strong technical signal that October's price rally may have more gas in the tank. Bulls will point to strong export inspections and basis levels at the Gulf that have risen in the last 4 days for December delivered soybeans. The long term fundamentals of this market continue to point to lower prices when taking into account stocks/use for 2014/15 and the production outlook for South America. First notice day for November 14 futures is Friday, October 31st. If you need help rolling to January futures please contact our office.

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This morning the Ukrainian Agricultural Ministry announced the country may export 11.76 million metric tons of wheat this marketing year compared to 9.2 exported last year. This year the countries wheat harvest increased 6.3% due to a higher number of planted acres and better yield. Currently the USDA has Ukrainian wheat exports pegged at 10 million metric tons in the October WASDE report which was unchanged from the previous report in September.

Over the last few days Chicago wheat and Kansas City wheat have been consolidating right around their 50 day moving averages which have acted as resistance. As more time passes around these levels the potency of the resistance will fade. If prices break out and move another leg higher, be cautious as we move right into the $6.20 resistance in Kansas City Wheat and the $5.42 resistance in Chicago wheat.

 

 

 

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