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Morning Comments - October 06

In the overnight session the grains traded a bit higher with corn up 1 3/4 cents soybeans down 1/2 a cent and wheat up 4 1/2 cents. The outside markets are mixed with the U.S dollar trading .22 percent lower, E-Mini S&P futures .1 percent lower and crude oil up 41 cents this morning. On Friday the USDA will release its October Supply and Demand report.

Crop progress was reported yesterday after the market closed and showed that corn harvest was behind analyst expectations with only 27 percent of the crop harvested below the four year average of 32 percent complete. Analysts were expecting to see corn harvest advance to at least 30 percent complete this week. Soybean harvest progressed strongly last week with 42 percent of the crop rated good to excellent, beating analyst expectations of 41 percent and ahead of the 4 year average of 32 percent harvested. Soybean harvest jumped 21 percent this week. Crop conditions remained steady for corn with 68 percent of the crop rated good-to-excellent. Soybeans on the other hand jumped 2 percentage points in the good-to-excellent category to 64 percent.

Export inspections were strong for soybeans on Monday providing strong support for the oilseed. For soybeans export inspections totaled to 1.1 million metric tons last week which was well above the expectations which ranged from 450,000-600,000 metric tons expected by analysts. Corn inspections disappointed with 469,697 metric tons inspected for export and wheat met expectations at 557,109 metric tons.

Keep a close watch on Corn which is breaking out of its consolidation pattern on the 100 day moving average. At Grain Hedge we believe it is quite likely that we retest $4 and probably move even higher based on the technical trading of the grain. Remember, the gap at $4.02 will likely act as resistance in the near future.

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