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Morning Comments - July 01

In the overnight session we have pulled back a bit with corn down 7 cents, soybeans down 5 1/2 cents and wheat down 17 cents this morning. The U.S. dollar is trading higher by a half a percent and crude oil is down 79 cents this morning.

Yesterday's quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports pushed the market sharply higher within sight of some important chart resistance levels.  September corn resistance is at $4.30 where the market closed back on December 29th.  September wheat resistance is at $6.60 where the market closed back on December 18th and soybeans traded up to a high of $10.45 1/2 in the overnight which is an area that acted as resistance multiple times between November and January of last year.

The June 30th planted acreage report showed lower than expected planted acreage estimates for corn and soybeans. For the second year in a row the U.S. is planting record soybean acreage estimated at 85.139 million acres which was higher than the March 31st acreage numbers, but slightly lower than analyst expectations which averaged 85.171 million acres. The USDA followed their acreage report with an announcement that they will be resurveying Cotton, Soybeans and Sorghum acres in Texas, Kansas, Arkansas and Missouri after excessive rain caused planting delays.

Corn acreage slid 302,000 acres from the March 31st report to 88.897 million acres. This will be the lowest corn acreage since 2010, and is below analyst expectations which averaged 89.292 million acres. Wheat acres surprised the market with 56.1 million acres planted in 2015, which is 233,000 acres above the average trade guess and 733,000 acres above the March 31st forecast.

Corn stocks were reported at 4.45 billion bushels, 105 million bushels below the average trade expectations. Soybean stocks were also lower than expected with 625 million bushels, compared to expectations of 670 million bushels which helped bring buyers into the market. Wheat stocks were reported higher than trade estimates with 752 million bushels compared to analyst estimates of 718 million.

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